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Saturday, June 30, 2018

#Soybean Crash


The USA soybean futures are down about -15% off their recent highs. I have sold 2 /ZSU8 910 Puts for about $4 and as of Friday close, the price was $868.5.  This big loss doesn't scare me.   
Main factors causing the crash are weather outlook and demand from China. At the same time, the Brazilian soybeans for loading in September are at a premium of about $2 per bushel to futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. So far this is the result of trade wars ignited by the president Trump. However, soybean watchers believe that if China implements tariffs, the European Union will import more beans from the USA than from Brazil.  The common wisdom is that the discounted price in the U.S. will cause that to happen. As for the weather impact, one can say that probably the best weather scenario for soybean farms is already priced in.  

For the above explained reasons I have neutral to long bias and will keep 2 /ZS futures contracts in the portfolio while selling Calls.

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