Friday, August 17, 2018

#Ponzi #Crypto vs #Uranium

The recent post, "#Uranium is going to beat #crypto returns", may sound a little bit provocative, but let us check the realities of these two very different mining worlds.

The blockchain technology is not that young anymore, but no economically significant applications were reported yet.
At present, it is not obvious how to get rid of the inherent slowness and expensiveness of a blockchain transaction. Meanwhile, people are experiencing crypto-mania and it is an acute form of mania. The reason is that the opportunity of an abnormal gain has a strong emotional response in the reptilian part of the human brain. This reptilian brain has all chemical means to stop commonsense. When a critical mass of free lunch believers is achieved, it becomes a self-propelling mania, because human beings have the basic instinct to act in a herd. No one is going to ask who is the patsy, that ultimate bagholder on the other side of the trade. While the answer is pretty obvious, people don't mind to buy some hilarious  #ICO.  For example, PonziCoin does exist in the crypto universe.  I dare to predict that the eventual return on this ICO will be minus 100%. Ponzi is a common trait of ICOs. Hence minus 100% return is going to be the universal constant in the ICO world.




















As for #Uranium, there is no reason to think that the uranium cycle is different from any other commodity cycle for that matter.  In 2018 U supply is getting short, demand is growing while the number of active mines is dropping worldwide. When the overground stocks will go, the price will explode. Here one can get a solid return on investment while participating in the liquid market.  Indeed, for the next several years, aggressive trading strategies like stock replacement by debit call spread may yield abnormal returns and beat the darlings of the crypto world.



2 comments:

  1. How can you single out one coin? I'm not investing in coins, I'm buying ICO's at a discount, waiting until the crowd sale then dumping them. The long-term gains from the 5 major coins is my strategy. In the meantime initial coin offerings pay returns of 10x average over a short term. I do agree with you about Uranium but your not looking at crpto from a numbers stand point. You but an ico in the initial pre sale, then sell on an EXCHANGE. Then convert to usd. There is no one left holding the bag. Please run a simulation and let's say ETH buy $1k today 6/10/2018 and let's see the gains in 30/60/90 days. I assure you they'll be in the green.

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    1. Hi, Erik. " I'm buying ICO's at a discount, waiting until the crowd sale then dumping them." Unless ICO produces cash flow that crowd is crowd of bagholders.

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