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Monday, May 21, 2018

#Uranium #Market : Bear Bull Transformation


With spot prices below the cost of production for all but the lowest cost mines and growing demand, #Uranium Bull Market is on the Horizon.






#oil #WTI , #Macro #Trend is Your Macro #Friend : Take $230 profit & new entry

Another payout from the bull trend in oil & new entry. Winning streak is  2.5 years long now.


Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/21/2018 9:56 SINGLE SELL -1 TO OPEN /CLZ8 1/1000 DEC 18 /LOZ8 50 PUT 0.36 0.36 LMT
5/21/2018 9:01 SINGLE BUY 1 TO CLOSE /CLU8 1/1000 SEP 18 /LOU8 50 PUT 0.07 0.07 LMT

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Why do people trade at all ?

It is often repeated that more than 90% of retail traders end up losing money. However, at least in the USA, trading remains quite a popular occupation. So why do people trade at all ? My experience of chatting on investment blogs says that a trader usually presents him/herself as a rather rich person who trades simply because it is entertaining  except that sometimes it is boring to win all the times.

Real life encounters with traders tell quite a different story.

1. In our local park, my kids easily make tons of new friends. That's how I came to know a weekend daddy.  This old man  first lost his business; next, his  wife  ran away with a significant chunk of his wealth and to a younger man. The guy told me  that he trades his retirement account cause he doesn't feel secure about coming years and that his trading was inspired by "a bald guy on CNBC".  Shortly I learned that this nice person with huge black circles under the eyes trades FANG stocks and that he understands only  simple trading from  the long side. The year was 2016  and he was a happy trader who had recovered all his losses  caused by the nosedive of Apple stocks back in 2015.

2. Every other Saturday at 7:30 AM I play beach volleyball with other people from our physics and chemistry departments.   Here I talked with a Ph.D. whose wife and kid stay in India while in the  USA he shares a room with another guy from India. This young person invested ~$1000 in shares of crypto-mining companies and now is reduced to HODL. In his 30's this man who already published ~20 papers is desperately looking for an additional income as his  salary is not enough to fulfill  basic needs.

I know in person several other guys who can be classified as 1 or 2 or something in between.

My conclusion is that people do trade mainly because their financial situation is an unstable one.
Indeed   "Almost half of US families can't afford basics like rent and food; some 66% of jobs in the US pay less than $20 an hour."

No wonder that a trader in financially weak position often buys a hope while giving up a part of his/her real wealth. For example, it can be  Facebook shares or bitcoins.  In this case, Wall Street works as a wealth transfer machine where > 90% of retail traders  end up losing money.

I think before getting  involved with risky trading styles  one should try small-scale income trading that works similar to cash flow from real estate assets.

Friday, May 18, 2018

#SP500 $ES_F $SPY $SPX max #pain

with less than 3 hours till expiration the max pain strikes are :

2018-05-19 opt_pin@2700.0 /ES@2714.25 Force in $/handle=765663
2018-05-18 opt_pin@270.5 SPY@271.445 Force in $/handle=637698
2018-05-18 opt_pin@2720.0 SPX@2714.88 Force in $/handle=331408

$SPX's pin is $20 different from that of $ES_F &  $SPY.

Thursday, May 17, 2018

#silver $SLV take $150 profit & roll

Recently I posted   10% #income #trade for elderly where a combination of #silver covered call and credit put spread was used to achieve the income target without  a risk of  margin call. For my own account I use a calendar version of credit put spread which requires less capital but comes with an assignment risk.


Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/17/2018 12:52 SINGLE BUY 7 TO OPEN SLV 28-Sep-18 13 PUT 0.04 0.04 LMT
5/17/2018 13:03 SINGLE BUY 1 TO OPEN SLV 17-Jan-20 10 PUT 0.03 0.03 LMT
5/17/2018 12:10 SINGLE SELL -1 TO OPEN SLV 17-Jan-20 17 PUT 2.12 2.12 LMT
5/17/2018 12:06 SINGLE BUY 1 TO CLOSE SLV 29-Jun-18 17 PUT 1.52 1.52 LMT
5/17/2018 13:04 SINGLE BUY 6 TO OPEN SLV 29-Mar-19 10 PUT 0.02 0.02 LMT
5/17/2018 12:11 SINGLE SELL -6 TO OPEN SLV 29-Mar-19 16 PUT 1.15 1.15 LMT
5/17/2018 12:05 SINGLE BUY 6 TO CLOSE SLV 29-Jun-18 16 PUT 0.64 0.64 LMT


This trade marks a full recovery from a horrible loss by #SP500 #daytrading #algo :

#SP500 $ES_F #daytrading #algotrading : -29.5 points

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

puny #SP500 #daytrade : 1 point

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/16/2018 11:38 FUTURE SELL -1 TO CLOSE /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2715.25 2715.25 LMT
5/16/2018 11:12 FUTURE BUY 1 TO OPEN /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2714 2714 LMT

Start of Long term #Uranium $URA

According to  watchers of the uranium market the spot price is now sitting below the cost of production while demand is growing.  Thus after the cruel bear market  uranium has significant growth potential with low downside risk. 
Today long term $URA position was opened.
Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/16/2018 13:19 STOCK BUY 100 TO OPEN URA ETF 13.82 13.82 LMT

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

#sp500 #daytrading #algotrading : 4 points $200 profit

was posted live @tfo_medved : 4 points

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/15/2018 13:32 FUTURE BUY 1 TO CLOSE /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2705 2705 LMT
5/15/2018 10:56 FUTURE SELL -1 TO OPEN /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2709 2709 LMT

#ZB_F #bonds #naked #calls : flat $250 profit

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/15/2018 8:21 SINGLE BUY 1 TO CLOSE /ZBM8 1/1000 JUN 18 /OZBM8 143.5 CALL 0''16 0''16 LMT

Saturday, May 12, 2018

anatomy of #silver #gold pair #trade

Gold is a monetary metal, i. e. gold is money. Gold can be used as a safe storage of value when fiat currencies are being devalued day by day. Also rising gold  price usually means that faith in banking and governmental institutions  is falling and investors are looking for safe heaven. Gold has few industrial uses.
Silver  is used  both as a monetary and industrial asset. Consequently there is strong silver-gold correlation.  However, because silver also has many industrial uses it is affected by the business cycle. 
A trader can try to profit form the interplay of monetary and industrial factors. From historical perspective Silver/Gold ratio is rather high,  i.e ~ 80 : 

































One /SI contract is a digital equivalent of 5,000 oz of silver. At the moment it can be hedged with ~ 62 oz of gold. 

One /GC contract is  a digital equivalent of 100 oz of gold.  60 delta /GC call against  /SI contract gives a fully hedged position than.


Naturally a contrarian wants to short gold and long silver here but let us think some fundamentals first. 


Friday, May 11, 2018

#soybean #ZS_F naked put : new entry &graphical explanation

Soybean is the first casualty in Sino-American Trade War of 2018. This is a trade aimed to profit from an inevitable arrival of Sino-American Trade Peace.

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/11/2018 11:44 SINGLE SELL -1 TO OPEN /ZSQ8 1/50 AUG 18 /OZSQ8 920 PUT 3.5 3.5 LMT




Bell shape shows 1 SD move. 
920 Put 77 DTE (days to expiration)
Buying power effect : ~ $600
Max profit : $150

Thursday, May 10, 2018

$ES_F #SP500 naked call : new entry

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/10/2018  2:21:224 PM SINGLE SELL -1 TO OPEN /ESM8 1/50 JUN 18 /ESM8 2905 CALL 1.2 1.2 LMT

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

flat #WTI naked #puts , $220 profit , income #trade .


Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/8/2018 13:02 SINGLE BUY 1 TO CLOSE /CLN8 1/1000 JUL 18 /LON8 46 PUT 0.01 0.01 LMT
5/8/2018 13:00 SINGLE BUY 1 TO CLOSE /CLN8 1/1000 JUL 18 /LON8 46 PUT 0.01 0.01 LMT

Monday, May 7, 2018

flat #WTI #RBOB #crack spread @19.37 , profit $110



Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type Crack
19.3744
5/7/2018 15:00 FUTURE BUY 1 TO CLOSE /CLN8 18-Jul FUTURE 69.8 69.8 MKT
5/7/2018 15:00 FUTURE SELL -1 TO CLOSE /RBN8 18-Jul FUTURE 2.1232 2.1232 LMT

Sunday, May 6, 2018

#WTI #RBOB simple crack spread #trade explained & trade example

In the oil industry cracking is the process whereby crude oil is separated into refined products.


In trading "Crack Spread" is the difference between the cost of the oil products such as heating oil, gasoline and the cost of oil from which these products were cracked.

"Crack Spread" is not really for retail trading because of liquidity and capital issues. However, a retail trader can trade "Simple Crack Spread” using pretty liquid /CL and /RB futures. 

/CL contract is for 1000 barrels of WTI oil and is priced in $USD/barrel; /RB contract is for 1000 barrels of RBOB gasoline and is priced in $USD/gallon. 

To price "Simple Crack Spread"  between 1000 barrels of RBOB and 1000 barrels of WTI in $USD/barrel one has to use the following   formula:

Saturday, May 5, 2018

10% #income #trade for elderly

My mother in law is an elementary school teacher in Taiwan. She is about to retire but suddenly the retirement in Taiwan became a problem. Recently the government employees were found to be "greedy people" and based on this discovery their pensions were decreased nearly by 50% .  Now my mother in law is looking for sources of additional income and asked me to make a trial investment ($3600 USD) for her.

This is how I invested her money to get ~10%  of interest per year ( tastyworks broker was used to minimize trading fees) :




Thursday, May 3, 2018

#SP500 $ES_F #daytrading #algotrading : -29.5 points

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/3/2018 12:58 FUTURE BUY 1 TO CLOSE /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2625.75 2625.75 STP
5/3/2018 10:59 FUTURE SELL -1 TO OPEN /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2596.25 2596.25 LMT

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

$ES_F #SP500 #daytrading #algotrading : 4 points

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/1/2018 11:05 FUTURE BUY 1 TO CLOSE /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2627.25 2627.25 LMT
5/1/2018 11:00 FUTURE SELL -1 TO OPEN /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2631.25 2631.25 MKT

#siver #gold pair update

PM complex moved down.  -40 /GC delta of the original trade 

Exec TimeSpreadSideQtyPos EffectSymbolExpStrikeTypePriceNet PriceOrder Type
4/27/2018 11:12SINGLESELL-1TO OPEN/GCM8 1/100 JUN 18/OGM81330CALL10.610.6LMT
4/27/2018 11:10FUTUREBUY1TO OPEN/SIN818-JulFUTURE16.5216.52LM
 became -20. Posted is the trade which makes /GC delta back to -40.

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
5/1/2018 10:52 SINGLE BUY 1 TO CLOSE /GCM8 1/100 JUN 18 /OGM8 1330 CALL 4.6 4.6 LMT
5/1/2018 10:49 SINGLE SELL -1 TO OPEN /GCQ8 1/100 JUL 18 /OGN8 1325 CALL 14.1 14.1 LMT

The trade mechanics was explained here.   For chart lovers I have a graphical representation of the trade:




To be continued ...

Monday, April 30, 2018

$ES_F #SP500 #algotrading : 17 points

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
4/30/2018 16:00 FUTURE BUY 1 TO CLOSE /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2646.5 2646.5 LMT
4/30/2018 11:06 FUTURE SELL -1 TO OPEN /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2676.75 2676.75 LMT
4/29/2018 18:37 FUTURE BUY 1 TO CLOSE /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2676 2676 MKT
4/27/2018 11:00 FUTURE SELL -1 TO OPEN /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2663.25 2663.25 LMT

Thursday, April 26, 2018

#sp500 #emini #daytrading #algotrading : 2 points

the trade was posted live @medved

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
4/26/2018 11:33 FUTURE SELL -1 TO CLOSE /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2658 2658 LMT
4/26/2018 11:22 FUTURE BUY 1 TO OPEN /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2655.75 2655.75 LMT

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

#sp500 #daytrading #algotrading :4 points

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
4/25/2018 12:35 FUTURE SELL -1 TO CLOSE /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2631.75 2631.75 LMT
4/25/2018 11:36 FUTURE BUY 1 TO OPEN /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2627.5 2627.5 LMT

short #bonds #ZB

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
4/25/2018 11:34 SINGLE BUY 1 TO OPEN /ZBM8 1/1000 JUN 18 /OZBM8 147.5 CALL 0''04 0''04 LMT
4/25/2018 11:33 SINGLE SELL -1 TO OPEN /ZBM8 1/1000 JUN 18 /OZBM8 143.5 CALL 0''38 0''38 LMT

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

#sp500 #daytrading #discretionary : 4 points

Take ur money & run type of trading; it was posted live  @medved

Exec Time Spread Side Qty Pos Effect Symbol Exp Strike Type Price Net Price Order Type
4/24/2018 14:11 FUTURE SELL -1 TO CLOSE /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2624.25 2624.25 LMT
4/24/2018 14:07 FUTURE BUY 1 TO OPEN /ESM8 18-Jun FUTURE 2620 2620 LMT